Local Political Expert (Maine)
**** 每小时100-200美元 (USD) 付款。##关于工作 我们正在构建专家撰写的预测和研究数据，用于评估和改进 AI 模型在实际政治和金融分析上。每个任务要求实践者根据固定证据截止时间进行推理没有后视并记录强大的分析师当时会做出的判断。这一角色涵盖政治报告作者：选举，民意调查和政治风险事件。##你将要做的 - 作者指出来自声明的截止时间的政治报告和预测 - 做并记录有关民意调查，胜利概率和市场隐含率的方向判断 - 解释事件的预期政治和市场影响背后的因果机制 - 审查模型生成的分析，并根据你自己的标准评分它们##我们正在寻找谁 - 在州的特定种族方面实践经验的当地政治分析师：当前或即将举行的参议院，州长或全州竞赛，或者同一州最近的周期 - 从大学政治学家，州或地区民意调查员，国家竞选或党派分析人员，或国家政治风险分析师等职位上对选举人，候选人和地方政治环境的现场知识 - 关于投票，胜利概率或竞选中赔率的现场判断记录 不是回顾评论 - 强大的选举素养和因果事件分析 - 通常有8年以上直接经验，或者具有相当绩效的异常强烈证据。我们首先看：目标州大学的政治科学部门和调查研究中心，州和地区民意调查机构，国家级运动和党派分析团队以及决定桌子或特定国家的评分站。国家预测或政治风险体验与具体的国家深入了解相结合时欢迎。品牌名字经验是强大的第一通过信号，但不是一个艰难的要求直接的经验和工作样本上的表现决定谁合格。##不合适 - 主要是国际政治，地缘政治或国家风险的个人资料，几乎没有美国比赛的工作 - 他们将报道的国家目前或最近未参加过美国比赛的分析师 - 纯粹的通信或新闻简介，没有证明预测，民意调查或检查
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**Pay:** $100-$200 per hour (USD).
## About the work
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
## What you will do
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
## Who we are looking for
- Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states: current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
- On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, the candidates, and the local political environment, from roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races — not retrospective commentary
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Backgrounds we look at first: political science departments and survey research centers at universities in the target states, state and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage. National forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when paired with deep knowledge of a specific state. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
## Not a fit
- Profiles whose experience is mainly international politics, geopolitics, or country risk, with little or no work on US races
- Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover
- Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment
- Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races
## Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.