本地政治专家—选举预测与政治风险
Local Political Expert — Elections Forecasting & Political Risk
**薪资:** 每小时150-250美元（美元）。
## 关于工作
我们正在构建由专家撰写的预测和研究数据，用于评估和改进AI模型在真实政治和金融分析中的表现。每个任务要求从业者从固定的证据截止点进行推理——不使用事后视角，并记录当时一名优秀分析师会做出的判断。
此职位涉及政治报告的撰写：选举、民意调查和政治风险事件。
## 你将负责
- 从给定的证据截止点撰写时点政治报告和预测
- 对民意调查、胜率和市场隐含概率做出并记录方向性判断
- 解释事件对政治和市场预期影响的因果机制
- 审核模型生成的分析，并根据自己的标准进行评分
## 我们寻找的人选
- 具有特定摇摆州竞选活动实际经验的本地政治分析师：现任或即将举行的参议院、州长或全州范围的竞选活动，或同一州最近的竞选周期
- 从事过大学政治科学家、州或地区民调专家、州级竞选或政党分析人员或州级政治风险分析师等角色，具备选民、候选人和当地政治环境的实地知识
- 在这些竞选活动中具有实时判断民意调查、胜率或几率的记录——而非回顾性评论
- 强烈的民意调查素养和因果事件分析能力
- 通常需要8年以上直接经验，或有异常有力的同等表现证据
优先考虑的背景：目标州大学的政治科学系和调查研究中心、州级和区域民调机构、州级竞选和政党分析团队，以及具有州级特定报道的决策桌或竞选评级媒体。当与对特定州的深入了解相结合时，全国性的预测或政治风险经验也是受欢迎的。知名品牌经验是强有力的初步信号，但不是硬性要求——直接经验和工作样本的表现决定谁符合资格。
## 不适合的人选
- 经验主要集中在国际政治、地缘政治或国家风险，而几乎没有在美国竞选活动中的工作经验
- 未参与过他们所覆盖州的当前或近期美国竞选活动的分析师
- 仅从事传播或新闻行业的人员，没有展示出预测、民意调查或概率分析的能力
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**Pay:** $100-$200 per hour (USD).
## About the work
We are building expert-authored forecasting and research data used to evaluate and improve AI models on real political and financial analysis. Each task asks a practitioner to reason from a fixed evidence cutoff — no hindsight — and document the judgment a strong analyst would have made at that moment.
This role covers political report authorship: elections, polling, and political-risk events.
## What you will do
- Author point-in-time political reports and forecasts from a stated evidence cutoff
- Make and document directional judgments about polling, win probabilities, and market-implied odds
- Explain the causal mechanism behind an event's expected political and market impact
- Review model-generated analyses and grade them against your own standard
## Who we are looking for
- Local political analysts with hands-on experience on specific races in swing states: current or upcoming Senate, governor, or statewide contests, or recent cycles in the same state
- On-the-ground knowledge of the electorate, the candidates, and the local political environment, from roles such as university political scientist, state or regional pollster, state-level campaign or party analytics staff, or state political-risk analyst
- A record of making live judgments about polling, win probabilities, or odds in those races — not retrospective commentary
- Strong polling literacy and causal event analysis
- Typically 8+ years of direct experience, or unusually strong evidence of equivalent performance
Backgrounds we look at first: political science departments and survey research centers at universities in the target states, state and regional pollsters, state-level campaign and party analytics teams, and decision desks or race-ratings outlets with state-specific coverage. National forecasting or political-risk experience is welcome when paired with deep knowledge of a specific state. Brand-name experience is a strong first-pass signal but is not a hard requirement — direct experience and performance on the work sample determine who qualifies.
## Not a fit
- Profiles whose experience is mainly international politics, geopolitics, or country risk, with little or no work on US races
- Analysts who have not worked on a current or recent US race in the state they would cover
- Pure communications or journalism profiles without demonstrated forecasting, polling, or probabilistic judgment
- Academic profiles whose work is purely theoretical, with no analysis of live races
## Point-in-time discipline
Every task is graded on reasoning from the stated cutoff without hindsight, data leakage, confidential information, or material non-public information.